Through June 17, 2010 (NBA season completed)

Notes: For football, three varieties of play are offered: "early leans" are plays that look good shortly after the lines are released, "confirmed selections" are those that look good late in the week, and "half-unit" plays are recommended for smaller wagers. The early leans and confirmed selections are the same some weeks, and quite different others, so they are tracked separately. In the off-season I will compile a more complete break-down to find the number of distinct plays, and an over-all win percentage (X winners out of Y distinct plays).

You can trust this report simply because it would be foolish to post jacked up results. Active customers know the results, and if they saw inaccurate claims here, they probably would not return as future customers. Deception is a mistake in this business.

Football:

NFL sides: 32-29 on early leans, 25-25 on confirmed selections, 16-11 on half-unit plays
NFL totals: 38-40
NFL money lines: 3 winners, 1 loser

CFB sides: 72-57 on early leans, 66-52 on confirmed selections, 14-10 on half-unit plays
CFB totals: 124-108
CFB money lines: 7 winners, 1 loser

Basketball:

NBA sides: 104-63, 62.28 %
NBA totals: 235-216, 52.11 %
NBA money lines: 5 winners, 1 loser

CBB sides: 190-149, 56.05 %
CBB totals: 340-350, 49.28 %
CBB money lines: 7 winners, 1 loser

College note: These are the results after 12/5, which is the day on which I advised customers that the system had reached a sufficient confidence level for regular-sized wagers. CBB sides were 42-46* (47.7 %) before this date, but customers were advised that the picks were only experimental, and to bet cautiously. (* That was the best-case scenario; there were games with line movement where some customers may have had different outcomes.)

Results by sport, college and pro combined:

Football early leans: 104-86, 54.74 %
Football confirmed selections: 91-77, 54.17 %
Football half-unit plays: 30-21, 58.82 %
Football totals: 162-148, 52.26 %
Football money lines: 10 winners, 2 losers

Basketball sides: 294-212, 58.10 %
Basketball totals: 575-566, 50.39 %
Basketball money lines: 12 winners, 2 losers

I only pick moderate favorites on money line plays, which means a good majority must win for long-term profitability (and indeed a good majority have won this year). Odds estimates are provided for money line plays on every game, and customers may thus find their own money line plays, if that's their thing. Customers who like money lines will probably play plenty of underdogs, and they will probably be profitable using our projections. Since picking worthwhile favorites seems a little more tricky, these are what I select from time to time. If done well, this can be a very profitable play. I tend to look for favorites with odds in the -150 to -250 range (-250 means bet $25 to win $10, if the team wins; -150 means bet $15 to win $10). For a group of such plays, one needs to win about two-thirds of the time for a profit, and as you can see, we won 22 and lost 4 this year (84.6 percent).

Entropy's subscribers are quite likely to be winners for the season, whichever type of bet they prefer. Also noteworthy is the fact that I always urge caution in the early season. NFL results were much better in Weeks 9-17 than in Weeks 1-8. Customers heeding my advice would most likely have been wagering more in the latter portion of the season, and their profit margins would be higher than what is indicated by the over-all season results.

ATS win percentages needed to break even:

with 10 percent VIG: 52.38 %
with 7 percent VIG: 51.69 %
with 5 percent VIG: 51.22 %

Some online books offer 5 or 7 percent VIGs. Some do so on a regular basis, while others offer temporary specials. I highly recommend going for reduced juice, as the difference in your profit will be drastic.

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